Historical Analysis Points to McCain Edge
What do you get when you cross a political science college minor with someone who has spent over a decade crunching numbers for sports handicappers… and apply that to this year’s electoral college in the general election for President?
5 McCain Victories
5 with no winner but a McCain edge
1 with no winner but an Obama/Clinton edge
1 Tie
These are not predictions, but instead numbers generated based on historical analysis of each state. Let’s break down each of the 12 scenarios.
Scenario 1a – 269-269 Electoral Tie
This merely takes each state’s voting history for the past 5 elections and awards the party with the most victories the electoral votes this year. For example,
Scenario 1b – 199 McCain – 255 Obama/Clinton
This uses the same data as Scenario 1a, but removes borderline states.
Scenario 2a – 278 McCain – 260 Obama/Clinton
Again, we’re using the same data as Scenario 1a, but this time we’re going back the past 7 elections, which includes the Reagan 1980 and 1984 victories in the averages. Borderline states are included.
Scenario 2b – 269 McCain – 102 Obama/Clinton
This is the same data as Scenario 2a, but excluding borderline states.
Scenario 3a – 414 McCain – 124 Obama/Clinton
Scenario #3 takes a look at how likely a state is to vote for the incumbent party versus the non-incumbent party, going back to 1988. In this situation, we are calling Republicans the incumbent party and Democrats the non-incumbent party. Most states are borderline in this category.
Scenario 3b – 42 McCain – 0 Obama/Clinton
This is the same data as Scenario 3a, but removing borderline states. As you can see, most electoral votes are not counted with this method.
Scenario 4a – 438 McCain – 100 Obama/Clinton
This is the same data as Scenario 3a, but going back to 1980. McCain is given a bigger boost with this method.
Scenario 4b – 56 McCain – 0 Obama/Clinton
Scenario 4a data is used, but omitting borderline states.
Scenario 5a – 274 McCain – 264 Obama/Clinton
Scenarios 5 and 6 are perhaps the most interesting, as they combine states voting history by party with their likelihood to vote for the incumbent or non-incumbent party. The race tightens up here, but the edge goes to McCain. Again borderline states are included and this data goes back to 1988.
Scenario 5b – 172 McCain – 88 Obama/Clinton
The same data as Scenario 5a, but with borderline states omitted.
Scenario 6a – 274 McCain – 88 Obama/Clinton
Again, the same as Scenario 5a, but using a data pool going back to 1980, and includes borderline states.
Scenario 6b – 172 McCain – 13 Obama/Clinton
Scenario 6a data but with borderline states omitted.